Better than zero

Tilt is the worst enemy of the poker player. Last Friday, heads up for first prize, I was in the short stack against young M. I find him very hard to read but I'm sure that's purely psychological. He has a lock over me. I know how to beat him but somehow I let him win pots that I'm in. So I have about 6500 chips and he has more like 30000. The blinds are at 300/600 or 200/400, something like that, so I'm close to desperate.

I pick up K6s and make it 2000 to go. Realistically, I could and probably should have gone all in. He raised me all in. A glance at the pot and my stack and I called. I put him on an ace, which was a good read. I considered it possible he was bluffing but I figured with a stronger hand he'd have the sense not to push me off it but would call and let me bet into him on the flop.

Against the range that I considered possible (although not entirely likely), I was about 55/45, and against A8, 60/40. Maths-oriented types will see straight away that I called 4500 to win about 9000 (my 2000, the 2000 that he put in to call that, a stake matching the rest of my stack and the blinds).

All in all, not such a bad call, you might think. I didn't have the best of it, but I was taking good odds.

But still I think it was bad. Because although I had figured it for a decent call maths-wise, that isn't why I made the call. I made it because I felt that being run off yet another hand would be dispiriting and I would lose the heart I'd need to fight back.

So neither of us hit and I finished second again. I don't mind not winning. I play poker for money, not the acclaim of my peers, and the difference between the prizes was only one buyin.

I do mind tilting though. I have to work a lot harder on remaining focused and making my plays with my head and not my emotions. Sure, it hurts that players who I am confident I can beat manage to win tourneys that I only come second or third in.

Am I overstating my ability? No. I think I am about one rung above useless. I don't have any illusions about how difficult becoming a good player is, or how unlikely it is for me to make it. I tend to have more illusions about how good others are! The other night, playing at the University of Queensland, I picked up a pair of hooks. A guy raised a smallish amount and me and one other called. The flop came 772. He bet four times the pot, a huge bet.

Nineteen times out of 20, playing donkeys online, this bet will mean "I have a small pair or AQ and I want to scare you out of the pot". It's what you might call a "go away" bet.

The third guy folded and I raised all in. The bettor called it. He turned over QQ.

Whoops. I had overestimated the guy. I thought he was too cluey to have made a go away bet with a decent hand. The third guy said he had folded tens and what a great fold that was. I was thinking god, you're even worse than the other guy if you don't know to call a go away bet with a biggish pair. Yes, he would have lost to my hooks but that's poker.

So I have to learn the lesson that knowing how good you are at poker is precisely half the information you need! You must also be clear on how good you are compared with the guys you play against.

At the level I play, I do okay. This week, I met my first target. I have increased my bankroll from $20 to more than $200 (this is my online bankroll, not counting whatever I've won live, which because I play for fun more than anything else, I don't consider).

I am still crawling rather than running, going at a bit less than 3BB/100, although that includes a big stretch when I played cluelessly and lost quite a lot of big bets. I have now played enough hands that I can have some confidence that I'm a winning player, although that's a very long way short of being any good. However, experience is a big part of becoming skilled, so I can hope to get better with practice.

And the practice is fun! Whatever else it is, poker is fun. It's a game of cards, in which I try to outwit people from all over the world. So wish me hot cards and soft opponents innit.

posted by Dr Zen @ 3:47 pm