In or out

The flop is 753 rainbow. I have pocket queens. I raised PF and was called by one guy.

So I bet out a decent amount. I would like to take it down right here and now, and not let the guy draw out on me. He has no odds for a draw if he calls.

But he raises. I reraise, figuring him for a bluffer. He reraises again and I muck the ladies. He might try to bluff a PF raiser once but not twice.

But what did he have? He didn't reraise PF, so I can't think he has big cards. At the time I was thinking pocket sevens or fives. But it dawned on me, after the game, that he might bet like that with a pair. He might even have done it with two overcards. He's a poor player after all, his only strength his unpredictability.

Losing doesn't hurt in poker, not if you want to be a good player. I lose without blinking because I know that making correct decisions will pay off in the longer term. If my opponents call without the right odds to do so, they might get lucky but ultimately maths will catch up with them.

But making mistakes hurts. If the guy had pocket Ts or Js, I made a terrible mistake. I do not know whether I should have gone all-in. Trying to figure it out, I reckon he must have had one of these hands: 64, 33, 55, 77, 99, TT, JJ, KK, AA (these last two rather unlikely because he'd likely raise a big pair PF), AJ, AQ, AK. I am beating the medium pairs and the ace highs, losing to everything else.

I dunno. At least I didn't consider just calling. That's the best I can say about it. I have no idea whether I made the right decision. It crippled me for the rest of the game though, putting me on a short stack, which a run of poor cards didn't allow me to increase at all.

***

But even if I did make a mistake, it wasn't the worst of the night. There were at least two worse. In one, M was faced with an allin bet on the river. The flop had included paired Js. The guy who I had struggled with, M2, had gone all in. W, the host, had called. M, it turned out, had pocket rockets. It's hard in hold'em to get away from AA if you're beaten but you have to do it if you are. So what should M have been thinking? M2 is a bluffer but he is betting into two players. So you have to think he has a J or just maybe two pair, which M can beat.

Even if you think M2 is stone bluffing or betting two pair, you know W isn't. Bettors can be bluffing but callers cannot. M had to fold. W even agonised over his call, letting anyone observant know that he had a J with a smallish kicker.

But M called. A horrible decision. M2 and W both had JT and M was busted.

Early in the game, in the small blind, facing a raise from the big blind and holding AK, I went all in. The big blind folded, but showed me his cards: KK.

This was terrible. He had assumed I must have AA. But there were several hands I might have gone all in with, not least the one I actually had. Given that we were the blinds, I wouldn't necessarily be thinking I'd need a hand as big as AA or KK to go all in. I could even have been bluffing. It's likely I would be stealing with a lesser hand that left me with outs if called by something decent.

KK is a very good hand. Only AA is better. If you get the opportunity to go all in before the flop with it, you must take it. Not to do so is a huge error. If I had had rockets, well, that's the way it goes. With any other hand in my range, I would be a big underdog. Strangely enough, I had the exact same thing happen online the next day, except that I was the guy holding KK. I called. The guy flopped an A. A disaster for me.

But I rivered a king, took all his chips and went on to win the SnG I was playing.

posted by Dr Zen @ 9:50 am