Drawn together

So the draw is made and the question is, what are our thoughts on the World Cup, the world's foremost sporting competition? (And a genuine world tournament, not just for Americans.)

Group A proves all those rumours about FIFA's rigging the draw entirely without foundation by providing home nation Germany with a group so easy they could send out their youth team and still qualify. They have a track record of starting slowly, but even so, I can't see them not being top of their group. The question is who will be second? Unless Germany is raised about 2000 metres, Ecuador are unlikely to win a match -- all their wins in qualifying were at altitude. Poland are very run of the mill, but Costa Rica are cursed by being Central American, therefore rubbish. Still, Ecuador do begin against Poland and will face a probably already qualified Germany last. I have a sneaking feeling they could snatch draws against Poland and a complacent Germany, and go through.

If they do, they will likely face England, who should win Group B. I say that not out of misplaced national pride, but because England have an easy draw too. England have not beaten Sweden in x matches, where x is quite a lot, but even so, you have to like their chances of doing a poor one-man team. That man is Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and surely even Sven has worked out that if he is shackled, Sweden will struggle for goals. Paraguay make an easy opener for England, who will, one hopes, beat them regardless what team they put out, so superior are England's players. England actually do have good resources, believe it or not. The problem is that Sven is a poor coach. Yes, you read me right. He won the Scudetto because he bought some shithot players when Serie A was very negative and played at walking pace. The problem for England is that we have a team of players whose club sides build their success on pace and movement, but as soon as they put on an England shirt they all try to play like continentals. The pace drops and England's deficit in technical ability is exposed. Sven has three more, probably fatal, problems: first, he is too loyal to players who are out of form; second, he picks players and then tries to fit them into a structure -- he needs to do things the other way round; and third, worst of all, he allows England to play too deep, so that there is all too often a huge gap between the midfield and the attack. This latter was the reason we could not overcome Brazil in the last World Cup, when they were down to ten men and we were good enough to go all the way, if only. It didn't help then either that Sven kept an injured Beckham on the pitch and didn't have options in attack because he'd left them back in England. My view on England is that Frank Lampard went to another level when partnered with a decent holding midfielder. Either Gerrard plays that role or one of them is not picked. Simple as that. Who else would I consider besides Gerrard? Look no further than Scott Parker, a brilliant, combative midfielder, who wil run all day. Wright-Phillips on the right, Downing on the left and we have a quality midfield, able to compete with the best. Carrick would also be very acceptable in the DM role. What we'll doubtless get is Lampard, Gerrard, Beckham, Scholes and headscratching when we can't win against anyone even half-decent. Ledley King should not even be considered as a midfielder, but if he travels as a defender, the option is there. Up front it's Rooney and AN Other. I don't see a place for Crouch if you pick Rooney. Or Owen, if only because Stevie Gerrard forgets how to pass when he sees little Mikey, and pings the same long ball in for the whole match. I find Owen frustrating. Yes, he does score, but teams tend to mould their game around him, and it leads them to ignore better options. It's okay against Albania, but against better sides, it leads us to be predictable and all too beatable. What's needed is someone sharp and hungry. Okay, not many of them about because nearly all decent strikers in the Premier League are foreign. So maybe we're looking at Defoe, who is not in form, as backup for little Mikey. England have to win the group, because if they do they get a quite astonishingly good draw: probably Ecuador and then the better out of Portugal and Holland or Ivory Coast -- very doable. Unless I've read the draw wrong and it's Argentina again and probably yet another defeat on pens. Sweden should run up in the group because Paraguay are one of the weaker South American sides. If you draw Trinidad and Tobago in a sweep, you can rip up your ticket. They're along for the ride and the rather cliched patronising from the commentators.

Group C is the "Group of Death". There's always one: a tough group in which a half-decent side will bite the dust, or at least in which two or three fancied teams meet. Argentina are a very good side, well capable of winning the tournament. I'm particularly looking forward to seeing Juan Roman Riquelme, who is something special to watch. He strolls around the pitch, totally unhurried, and plays exquisite passes with astonishing accuracy and vision. Argentina possibly lack a bit up front but they're very competitive in midfield. Their match with Holland will be a highlight of the first round. Holland have rebuilt under van Basten, with a young side who play attractive, attacking football. The group could see one or other burnt though, because Serbia and Montenegro are capable of a result on their day, and Ivory Coast have some talented players. I'd say they are best of the Africans this time, and it's really unfortunate they were drawn in such a hot group. They'd probably have qualified from Group H. Still, they have Argentina first, and the Argies often play atrociously first time out. It's the Ivoirians first ever time at the finals, so they should be fired up. It would be a bold man who predicted this group, but sod it, I'm bold enough: Argentina and Ivory Coast to progress.

Group D is weak because Mexico were, surprisingly, seeded. They're not particularly strong but they have two of the weaker "third world" sides in with them. Angola will look forward to the game with former colonial masters Portugal, who will flatter to deceive before being eliminated tamely, probably at the quarters by England. Iran gave us that great memory when they duffed the States a while back, but it won't be happening this time. I'd have thought Mexico will be too strong for them and I don't think Angola have the quality to beat either of the big two.

Group E will be hot. Vastly overrated USA have a tough group to get out of, and will likely have their limitations thoroughly exposed. Italy are nothing like as good as they think they are though, while the Czechs are capable of going a long way if their better players are fit and on form. The key man is obviously Nedved, who is one of the world's best players. Ghana could well be dark horses. They're not likely to be mugs, and will certainly fancy making it torrid for their opponents. They have a lot of pace, which will not suit Italy, who tend to be uncomfortable against sides who come at them. Still, you have to like Italy and Czecho. It's a hard one to call though. I wouldn't be surprised to see either, or both, of the others qualify.

Group F presents the mouthwatering prospect of Brazil thrashing Australia. Brazil are going to be bookies' favourites and they're my idea of the winners. The talent at their disposal is incredible: Ronaldinho, Kaka, Robinho, Ronaldo are just the biggest names. This tournament will provide Ronaldinho in particular the opportunity to stake his claim to be the greatest player of our day. He is truly brilliant on his day, and could yet turn out to be our Pele. He has to take his chance in Germany and set the tournament alight. This is not to overshadow Brazil's other talents, in particular the brilliant Kaka, a player of exquisite vision and touch, and young Robinho, who will, one hopes, make Australia's pedestrian defence a mockery. Still, the Aussies have a chance of qualifying. They open against Japan, who are very beatable. The strongest team in Asia, they might be, but under Zico they're not half the team that they were under Troussier at the last World Cup. Hiddink is a very canny coach and he will realise that a win against Japan and a draw against Croatia might be enough to see Australia through. Croatia are quite beatable, nothing like as strong as they were a few years back, when they had some genuinely good players. Much as I hate to say it, I see Australia and Brazil progressing. That could put the Aussies up against Italy in the round of 16. Italy are the kind of team Australia could do well against. The Aussies are rubbish at the back -- they really do have a second-division defence -- and workmanlike in the middle. I don't think players such as Bresciano and Grella or Skoko should be competitive against Italy's better midfielders, but Italy are negative and rarely make many chances in a game. Expect Hiddink, should he come up against them, to pack the midfield and look to grind out a result. I'd be trying to play it at a very high pace. Italy do not like that.

Group G is an interesting one. France ought to skate through. Although they are probably not as good as they were when Zidane was at his peak, they are still good enough to progress easily. I know we said that last time, but really, expect them not to fuck up badly again. Switzerland are possibly the worst of the European teams, Togo are nohopers and South Korea will struggle to do as well this time as they did last. I wouldn't like to say who'd qualify out of those three. One hopes the Koreans though, because they'll give poor Spain nightmares!

Group H could provide an upset. Tunisia are capable on their day. Ukraine are a one-man team, but that man is Shevchenko, at last on the big stage. Spain have never won a major trophy, despite their players' talent. Maybe this time? Well no. I very much doubt it. Their players are not that talented and they rarely gel. They go in for agonising defeats -- hilariously against South Korea last time, when they could really have gone all the way. Still, I'm tipping Spain and Tunisia to get through, and with their easy draw, Spain should progress at least to the quarters.

So, overall, what do I think? Last time the football was atrocious and Brazil were far from convincing champions. They clearly have the talent and resources to win it. None of the European sides really convinces. Yes, I think England have a chance, but under Sven they just lack that bit extra that they'll probably need. It would be wonderful for Holland to finally win it, even if that does mean van Nistelrooy gets a medal, but I have my doubts that they're good enough. The same can be said of the Czechs. Perhaps a bit short of really good, although who knows on the day? Spain and Italy have chances, of course, but I wonder whether either is really up to it when the crunch comes. Argentina could win it. They definitely have the quality and they won't mind putting the foot in when guts are needed. Germany have to be respected, but they lack quality, and I'd actually be surprised if they won it. Still, they were rubbish last time and nearly won through sheer bloodymindedness. The Asians seem unlikely to shine this time, and the Africans are not particularly strong these days. Neither Nigeria nor Cameroon made it and other countries in Africa tend not to have enough depth to be really competitive. Australia can probably go as far as the last eight with a bit of luck, but they'll need it to beat Italy, if they meet them. More than that would be fairy-tale stuff and has to be accounted unlikely. The US, one hopes, will be sent packing early doors. If not, there is sure to be someone too strong for them -- I can name at least a dozen teams in the tournament that I'd expect to beat them fairly comfortably. So the Zen fiver is on Brazil, and maybe a sneaky place bet on la France, who have an easy enough draw (Tunisia, Italy/Australia looks okay to me and they would then play the winners of England/Argentina if all goes to plan).

posted by Dr Zen @ 1:48 pm